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Nigeria has emerged as the dominant force in Africa’s energy sector, capturing approximately 40% of the continent’s upstream deal value between 2023 and 2026.

This dramatic turnaround, highlighted in a report from the office of presidential energy adviser Olu Verheijen, shows Nigeria’s share of upstream Final Investment Decisions – FIDs surging from a mere 4% in 2024 to the top of the leaderboard in 2025.

Driven by sweeping policy reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the country has successfully restored investor confidence, placing it ahead of traditional heavyweights like Angola, Algeria, and Mozambique.

At the heart of this resurgence is a series of strategic reforms aimed at fiscal competitiveness and regulatory clarity. By repositioning key agencies like the NUPRC and NMDPRA to streamline project approvals and offering targeted tax incentives, the government has unlocked over $10 billion in fresh capital.

Major projects such as the Bonga North deepwater development are anchoring this growth, while a massive pipeline of future projects, including the Owowo and Zaba Zaba fields, is estimated to exceed $50 billion. This influx of capital is complemented by a structural shift as indigenous operators like Seplat Energy and Oando take over onshore assets from international firms, deepening local participation.

The impact of these investments is already visible in Nigeria’s production metrics and energy security. Crude output rose from 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to approximately 1.6 million in 2025, with onshore production hitting a twenty-year high. Gas utilization has also jumped by 40%, reaching 3.25 billion standard cubic feet per day by 2026, serving as a pillar for industrialization.

Simultaneously, the downstream sector has seen a significant boost in refining capacity, with local petrol and diesel production expanding enough to effectively eliminate nationwide fuel queues and stabilize the domestic supply.

While the data points to a decisive economic turnaround, the government cautions that long-term success depends on consistent policy execution and enhanced security in oil-producing regions. The transition of assets to indigenous firms requires efficient management to sustain the current momentum toward a long-term goal of 3 million barrels per day.

Overall, Nigeria has successfully reclaimed its competitive edge, repositioning itself as the primary destination for global energy capital and a blueprint for resource-driven economic recovery in Africa.