LA SUITE APRÈS LA PUBLICITÉ

As the National Bureau of Statistics – NBS prepares to release the April inflation figures, a survey of seven prominent economists reveals a landscape of cautious concern and conflicting signals.

While some experts predict a continued northward trajectory for prices, others point to stabilizing economic fundamentals that might temper the surge. This anticipation follows a March inflation print of 15.38%, which effectively reversed a brief period of easing and solidified Nigeria’s position as the country with the highest inflation rate in the ECOWAS region.

The majority of forecasters, including Johnson Chukwu of Cowry Assets and Dr. Felix Echekoba, anticipate a further uptick, with estimates ranging between 15.6% and 16%. These experts argue that stubborn cost drivers—specifically a sharp rise in energy prices, fuel costs, and shipping fees—are feeding directly into transportation and food logistics.

The “contagion effect” of international energy shocks and the Middle East conflict has added another layer of complexity, making it difficult for Nigerian businesses to pass any operational relief on to the end consumer.

Adding to the upward pressure is the “perennial problem” of excess liquidity chasing limited value. Moses Igbrude and Zakari Mohammed highlighted that beyond energy and food, a steep rise in residential rents across the country is expected to weigh heavily on the April report.

Despite a significant minimum wage increase in 2024, the persistent inflationary trend over the last 21 months has largely neutralized the purchasing power of Nigerian workers, leaving the average citizen’s wealth eroded by structural fiscal challenges and currency depreciation.

Conversely, a more optimistic view is held by Dr. Ayo Teriba of Economic Associates, who expects no significant change for April. He argues that Nigeria’s economic fundamentals have shifted positively, citing foreign reserves that can now absorb exchange rate shocks and a stock market that has surged by over 50% in three months.

Teriba suggests that the availability of alternative energy sources has made fuel prices more elastic, potentially decoupling them from their historical role as the primary driver of domestic inflation.

Ultimately, the upcoming NBS data will serve as a litmus test for Nigeria’s current economic policies. Whether inflation inches upward toward the 16% mark or holds steady, the long-term historical context remains sobering; since the Structural Adjustment Programme of 1986, single-digit inflation has been a rarity in Nigeria.

For now, the nation remains caught between the hope of stabilizing market fundamentals and the reality of a high-cost environment that continues to challenge price stability.